Less than one year into a new administration, speculation is already in full swing for the 2024 presidential election. While no politician seems to have escaped the rumor mill, political spectators have honed in on two prominent state leaders who may be positioning themselves for a spot on the Republican ticket.   

The stakes were particularly high for the 2020 elections, and not just for the presidency. At the state-level, some of the most closely watched races were Democratic efforts to flip swing state legislatures blue and take control of the upcoming redistricting process.

According to a recent study* by Ballotpedia, 97.3 percent of state legislators seeking reelection have advanced to the general election. This turnover rate isn’t unique. In fact, it’s in line with the percentage of incumbents advancing from the primary to the general elections in 2018 (97 percent) and 2016 (97.5 percent).