For the last two years, the most fiercely fought contest in Texas politics has been the Democrats’ effort to take control of the Texas House. Buoyed by flipping 12 seats to their column in 2018 and believing they could ride a demographic wave to increased power, Democrats and their PACs spent tens of millions of dollars in this effort. 

Does spending the most money during a campaign win elections? Historically, Texas has shown a strong correlation between a candidate’s ability to outspend their opponent(s) and victory on Election Day. 

The most closely watched battle in Texas state-level politics is the effort by Democrats to flip the Texas House to blue this November. If Democrats can hold the 12 seats they gained in 2018 and take nine more, they will control the Texas House for the first time in more than two decades. The upcoming redistricting process, set to happen in 2021, redraws the legislative maps for both state and federal legislatures and makes this election even more consequential.